Ruminations on being a grinch and aspirational gas forecasts

Aweh, My Dearly Beloved Fellow Ruminants & Groupies,

I spent a large part of my corporate career in the strategy department because I thought I knew a thing or two about strategy—and perhaps more worryingly, management agreed and hired me.

Let’s start with a concept beloved by visionary strategists: the Big Hairy Audacious Goal (BHAG). A BHAG is a bold, long-term goal that pushes an organisation to think big and aim high. The term was coined by Jim Collins and Jerry Porras in their book Built to Last. A BHAG should be clear, exciting, and challenging—something that can inspire a whole company. For example, Tesla’s BHAG has been to “accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy.” This ambitious goal has guided Tesla’s strategy, from electric vehicles to battery storage and solar energy. It gives the company a purpose beyond just profit.

Let’s (graciously) ignore Elon’s recent chainsaw diplomacy, woodchipper policy reforms, and his crusade against USAID and the destruction of US science. Let’s focus on Tesla. Yes, recent hiccups suggest a slightly distracted CEO, but Elon remains the poster child for the BHAG. He didn’t just disrupt the conservative car industry—he took on the space industry and became the richest person on the planet while doing it.

So, do BHAG’s rule?

Here’s mine: I aspire to be a billionaire (in dollars, not puny rands) in ten years. But do BHAGs have a darker cousin—the Big Hairy Audacious Bullshit (BHAB)? My wife Nerine often (and fairly) accuses me of being a grinch, suggesting I’d achieve my BHAG if I just adopted a positive mindset.

And look, I’ll admit it—I do have certain Grinch-like tendencies. Not the heart-two-sizes-too-small bit (though some of my students might disagree), but definitely the part where I stand on the mountaintop sneering at the Whos down below, all chanting and clapping for the next “transformational” initiative. I’ve seen enough strategy sessions to know that when the drums get loudest, the substance is usually thinnest. While the Whos are down there stringing together another “ecosystem collaboration platform for multi-stakeholder green hydrogen alignment,” I’m in my cave with the spreadsheets, muttering, “It’ll never fly.” Because sometimes, being the Grinch just means you’re the only one sober at the party. And someone must be.

Could it really be that simple? Set a BHAG, think positive, and start manifesting? Maybe not for me—but what happens when corporations or governments start operating this way?

If there’s one thing the South African government excels at, it’s aspirational planning. Take the looming gas cliff—a well-known but unaddressed supply crisis. Yet, the 2022 Gas Master Plan lays out a seemingly confident roadmap: from today’s 190 PJ/a to 384–431 PJ/a by 2030, thanks to the Matola and Zululand LNG terminals.

Unfortunately, that’s BHAB. Big Hairy Audacious Bullshit. Or if you prefer: Boldly Hyped, Alarmingly Baseless.

Unrealistic forecasts can be deeply damaging—they create policy momentum and institutional commitments that are misaligned with commercial and technical realities, leading to wasted resources, misallocated effort, and false expectations. Not to mention value destruction.

My time in corporate strategy has made me an expert in BHAB I can sniff it a mile away. I helped create it and at times almost believed it.

But wait a minute can you reliably tell the difference between ambitions and bullshit. In the wild world of strategy and energy transition, BHAGs (Big Hairy Audacious Goals) and BHABs (Big Hairy Audacious Bullshit) often wear the same suit and shake the same minister’s hand. Both are loud, proud, and dripping with visionary flair. But while a BHAG dares to do the impossible with at least a half-baked plan, a BHAB is pure performance art—grand declarations with no budget, no timeline, and no earthly chance of delivery. It’s the difference between building a moonshot and just launching a LinkedIn post. Still, the overlap is real: some BHAGs age badly, bloating into BHABs when ambition outpaces competence. And some BHABs get lucky, stumble into alignment, and accidentally become progress. The real challenge? Telling which is which before the lights dim and the applause fades.

Nobody knows energy transitions like me. Believe me. While the experts are busy writing reports nobody reads, I’m out here calling the shots, seeing straight through the Big Hairy Audacious Bullshit—and there’s a lot of it, folks. They talk a big game, these strategy people, but they don’t have what I have: unmatched instincts, tremendous clarity, and a track record of calling out bullshit before it hits the fan. People come to me when the consultants have failed, when the slogans don’t land, and when the room’s full of smart people making very, very dumb decisions. Do you want results? Do you want reality? You call me. I’m the guy who sees the BHAB before it crashes your billion-dollar plan. And let me tell you—you’re gonna want me in the room.

And so here I sit, by the phone, a lonely sentinel of reason in a world drunk on ambition—waiting, just waiting, for someone wise enough to call.

Thanks for all the comments and input.

Bruce