Ruminations on how many years you have left.

Aweh dearly beloved fellow ruminants & groupies

How many years do you have left? More importantly how many good years do you have left? To explore this let’s start with the good news first. If your objective is to live a long life then you are living in the best possible time. The interactive time-lapse life expectancy graph prepared by Our World in Data is a wonderful example of compelling visualisation of data.

If you live in the first world, your life expectancy at birth is around 80 years. Africa lags behind, with many countries having a life expectancy below 60. South Africa is no exception, with a life expectancy of 62.3 years. In the South African context, this means I have already surpassed my sell-by date. Despite lagging in life expectancy, South Africa excels in inequality and has the highest income inequality in the world. As a consequence, the middle class and those able to afford private healthcare have life expectancies on par with the First World. Meanwhile, the poor often vote for the party that promises a better life for all.

Some have a romantic view of the past, but the reality is that life was nasty brutish and short. The average life expectancy in 1760 was 40. I am no fan of the dentist but having your tooth extracted with no anaesthetic or antibiotics to control the infection is possibly a fate worse than death.

So, the good news is that we live longer healthier lives than ever before but as I must we now need to explore the bad news. This week I received a report from my pension fund, which has been in existence for many decades, and it provided information on the pensioners’ age distribution as follows:

Age Groups     Number

60-70               2169

70-80               1212

80-90               230

90-100             25

100+                0

For those of you who have followed my blog, you will know I am a great believer in the concept of objective reality. These numbers provide a brutal dose of objective reality. I am not finished with objective reality. Let’s now get to the question in the title. How many years do you have left? Or perhaps more importantly how many good years do you have left?

I turn 63 next month. Is it reasonable to expect 10 good years? How about 20? To expect more is probably naïve. It is also entirely possible that I have less time than I think. Several of my peer group of friends and colleagues have already died. Look at the numbers and the population pyramid and the message is very clear.

There are lifestyle factors to consider. Listening to your doctor and attending to the basics of diet, exercise, maintaining a healthy weight, avoiding smoking, getting enough sleep, and limiting alcohol and substance abuse will help, but they are no guarantee. There are also genetic factors and pure randomness at play. Many diseases, such as a cancer diagnosis, become more likely as you age.”

My father is 83 and lives in a dedicated dementia care facility. Perhaps that is my fate.

This then begs the question: What should you do with the time you have left? Should you become idle and sit on the beach? Continue working? Become a grumpy old man, woman, or any other gender you choose? Maybe you can finally change your pronouns. Serve the community? Impart whatever limited wisdom you have to the younger generation? Focus on your friends and family? Become annoying and write blogs? Cultivate your hobbies?”

Apart from changing my pronouns, I am currently trying to do all the above. I often ask myself (several times a day) why? I don’t know the answers and I am wracked with uncertainty.

Dearly beloved readers I am sure you know the answers and I look forward to hearing from you. Is there a guru or oracle sitting on top of a mountain somewhere who can give me the answers? Perhaps the man in the mirror is the only person who can provide the answers I need. But why is he doing such a poor job?

What is important now? The best I can offer is that it is my family, friends, colleagues, and you dearly beloved readers. As is the case with most families our family is also complicated. Will I be able to resolve all these issues. Probably not and that’s ok. Life is messy. Get used to it.

Does it matter how you are remembered? I asked ChatGPT and it gave a meaningless answer. My own answer is yes because that will guide you to be a better and more considerate person. But how long will you be remembered for? Perhaps a few decades. I know very little about my great-grandfathers. Very few people are remembered for centuries and even fewer for millennia. Ultimately, we will all be forgotten.

On a positive note one of my future blogs will be about all things bright and beautiful but not about who made them.

I want to express my gratitude for all the ideas and comments received. I genuinely appreciate them, and please continue to share your thoughts.

Regards

Bruce

Published by bruss.young@gmail.com

63 year old South African cisgender male. My pronouns are he, him and his. This blog is where I exercise my bullshit deflectors, scream into the abyss, and generally piss into the wind because I can.

4 thoughts on “Ruminations on how many years you have left.

  1. Hi Bruce,

    As always, I enjoy reading your blogs. My brother referred me to the book “Outlive” which talks to this topic in some detail.

    The first half is a bit academic (which you may thoroughly enjoy) and the second half more practical. He introduces the topic of healthspan (see below) and the idea that we are currently in era of Medicine 2.0 which focusses on lifespan through cure by treating illness once you have them. This extending people’s lives at the end with many people having an unhealthy and unpleasant final decade. He proposes that we are starting to move into Medicine 3.0 where there will be an additional focus on prevention to extend healthspan .

    Another idea he introduces is the Centarian Decathlon. In this, he asks his new patients what 10 everyday activities they would like to be able to do when they are 100 based on their interest. He starts by presenting a list of physical tasks that might include the following: Hike 5km on a hilly trail, pick a child up from the floor, carry two 2kg bags of groceries 100m to your car. Knowing that this is what you want to be able to do at 100, you can work back to what you need to be able to do today based on the decline you will experience between now and then.

    The above is only touching on the contents of the book, one of the good things is that it is very structured. I bought it as an audible book and listened to it, for interest the above graph is from the attached pdf that comes with the audiobook. I found it interesting enough and worth understanding better that I bought the book afterwards to go through it in a bit more detail (which I haven’t yet done)

    The author is a very interesting guy.

    I hope you have many good years ahead.

    Best regards Anthony

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  2. Indeed you raise a topic that Trevor and I have been engaging with fairly frequently as 2023 and 2024 have brought a spate of things breaking and collapsing and wearing out.

    For example, the piped gas in Kensington collapsed a year ago (replaced by 2 new gas geysers and bottles at around R25k), followed by collapsed water pipes and infrastructure (a new JOJO and full property-wide water piping has helped continuity of supply at R15k). Then my car got flooded and they wanted to write it off but I managed to salvage it for the insurance payout plus R25k. The 30-year old gate motor then gave in to be replaced with a new R10k one, followed rapidly by its brother the 30-year old borehole pump at around R12k. Quite apart from the R100k odd-repairs and maintenance on our 1913 model home in the last 3 years . . .

    As all this was happening, we were actively figuring out how long the replacements for all these things needed to last – your title question was exactly what we were working with. Twenty years really would be about it, if we are fortunate. And we are assuming continuing good mental and physical health. So that has definitely been informing our decisions about the quality of the replacements . . .

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    Terri Carmichael

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