Ruminations on being alive and predictions for 2024

Aweh dearly beloved fellow ruminants & groupies

Dearly beloved readers I wish you all the best for 2024. I am grateful we are all still alive because it is a lot better than the alternative. I would like to start with what might, at first, appear to be an obvious statement. You need to be alive to make predictions about 2024.

So first a digression into what it means to be alive. If you ask ChatGPT what it means to be alive you get an unsatisfactory answer that you would find in a biology textbook about reproduction and homeostasis. Only a biologist and ChatGPT could give such a superficial answer to such a profound question. If you refine the question to what it means to be human and alive you get a much better answer starting with being conscious and self-aware. Empathy, compassion, love, and social connections are flagged as integral to the human experience. In addition, morals and ethics are part of being human. Being alive and human involves a combination of biological, cognitive, emotional, social, and philosophical aspects. It involves a complex interplay of factors that define our identity, experiences, relationships, and our place in the world.

But, is being alive a simple on/off switch? Are you either dead or alive? Lawyers and doctors tend to view it that way, right? But let’s face it, life doesn’t fit into neat little boxes. It’s more like a spectrum, varying in quality and vitality for each individual.

If you die from a disease that does not directly affect your mind you may die slowly but the change from being alive to dead is more abrupt. If you slowly lose your mind through a disease like Alzheimer’s, you slowly become less alive. Long before there is medical death consciousness and what it means to be human slowly seeps away over the years. When most of your memory is lost and you have no concept of time and no longer recognise those around you then you are only partially alive. You slowly fade away leaving family members to deal with your waning consciousness. It is not your body that determines whether you are alive but the state of your mind. The person you once knew no longer exists and you mourn their existence long before medical death.

So, what has this cheerful stuff got to do with 2024? I would like to claim that I am still sufficiently alive to make predictions about 2024. Dearly beloved readers the question of whether I’m less alive than when I was 30, I will leave to you to judge.  

So, with the partially relevant digression dealt with, what are my predictions for 2024? Let’s start with South Africa first. I will start with the negative first. We face an important election in 2024 and the venal, incompetent, bankrupt, and hypocritical ruling ANC is losing support. A couple of decades ago, Nelson Mandela was a global icon, and the concept of Madiba magic was prominent. Nobody sensible talks about that anymore. The ANC has pissed on Mandela’s grave and destroyed his legacy. Despite this, I predict that the ANC will still be in power at the end of 2024. Even if their support dips below 50% they will form a Faustian coalition with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) who will extract their thirty pieces of silver for their cooperation. The collapse of the South African state, state-owned enterprises, and municipalities will continue. The good news is that increasingly the private sector will step in for those who can afford it. As for the poor, they will get the government they voted for and deserve. Such is the nature of democracy. The South African Gini coefficient will get worse, but golf estates will thrive. We will have to wait until 2029 before the ANC potentially loses power.

In the United States, in the battle of the geriatrics, my prediction, unfortunately, is that Donald Trump will win a second term. It seems the more controversies he’s embroiled in, the more his fan club grows. As absurd as it sounds, any publicity is good publicity for him. On the afternoon of 9 November 2016, I vividly recall sitting in the boardroom at work and being told by my American colleague that it was unthinkable that Trump would be the next American president. The next day the unthinkable had happened. Perhaps my American colleague has honed his predictive skills in the intervening 8 years, and I will put his powers to the test again.

Speaking of presidents, should they be, uh, alive? Silly question? Not really. Cognitive decline as you age is a simple medical fact. As we age, cognitive decline is natural. Both Biden and Trump might not be the sharpest tools in the shed anymore. Accusations that both Biden and Trump are displaying signs of senile dementia are part of the political campaigning and mudslinging.  A four-year stint at 80 can be a cognitive marathon. What happens when your president is only partially alive? Could we have Schrödinger’s president? Brace yourselves, democracy’s in for a ride. America will also get the president it deserves.

Finally, some predictions closer to home for our family. Life will hopefully rumble on. With dedication, Oliver will complete his law degree, and Connor will perform well for the South African archery team in Turkey in June and perhaps even qualify for the Olympics. Nerine will be as busy as ever running her business. I will continue to teach and annoy you with my blog. I hope that we will also take time to smell the roses. I am going to endeavour to step back and be grateful for what I have and my friends and family around me. I hope I can make you think, and I hope you make me think. Because to think is to be alive. I predict I will succeed.

 I want to express my gratitude for all the ideas and comments received. I genuinely appreciate them, and please continue to share your thoughts.

Regards

Bruce