Ruminations on Electricity, Statements of the Obvious and Assumptions

Aweh dearly beloved fellow ruminants & groupies on day 142 of no lockdown.

 Period as an ivory tower academic 147 days

This week I return to one of my favourite topics energy because I can, and I must. This week I had the privilege of presenting a two-day course to a diverse group of more than 60 young graduate trainees on the topic of the security of the supply of liquid fuels, gas, and electricity. The topic of security of supply for energy is extremely topical both in South Africa and globally.  The Ukrainian war has made everybody aware of our dependence on energy and its cost. The course was interactive and there was a very interesting and lively discussion on the many issues considered on this complex topic. It is an exciting time to be teaching and studying energy.

Any analysis of an issue or a problem is based on a set of assumptions you make to perform that analysis. Sometimes the assumptions are not obvious, and they need to be clearly stated and justified at the outset. Often however one makes tacit assumptions, often about things that one considers obvious. When justifying a solar project, you don’t need to state that your analysis will assume that the sun will rise and set as it has in the past and that it is forecast to do in the future. Of course, if it doesn’t and we are plunged into darkness the solar project won’t work. That, of course, would be the least of our problems because without the sun the earth would tend to absolute zero and we would all freeze and die. The sun rising and setting is sufficiently obvious that you don’t need to state it. There is however a spectrum of obviousness in assumptions that you make and what might be obvious to me might not be obvious to you. Often the assumptions you make are based on your upbringing, culture, worldview, and education.  

Before presenting the course material on the security of the supply of electricity in the South African context I decided to start with some assumptions that I called statements of the obvious. Surely everyone would agree with them. I have listed the assumptions I made below:

• A reliable electricity supply is a requirement for South Africa to be a successful state
• An unreliable electricity supply is one of the markers of a failed state
• Resolving and eliminating load shedding is a national priority of the utmost importance
• As fossil fuels are phased down electricity will become increasingly important
• The carbon footprint of South African electricity needs to be steadily reduced with renewable electricity generation
• Old, unreliable, and carbon-intensive coal power stations need to be shut down in a planned fashion over the coming decades.

It was my expectation that everyone would just nod and agree, and we would move along swiftly. Not so fast.  The first unexpected point of view was that perhaps we should consider phasing out electricity and return to a simpler gentler lifestyle without electricity. After all, electricity is a recent invention and for most of humanity’s history, we survived without it. This relentless drive to produce more and more energy which we use to make more and more things is polluting our planet and is unsustainable. This young man suggested we were happier and better off in the past. We should return to a pre-technological age. Of course, I disagree. I for one would not like to live in a pre-industrial society. Life was nasty brutish and short and life expectancy without modern technology was short. We don’t know for sure what the population of South Africa was in 1600 but it was a fraction of what it is today. We could not sustain a growing population of 60 million without modern technology and electricity.  Irrespective of both our views and their validity I would argue that the march of technology is unstoppable, and we will not be returning to a pre-industrial society.

The next topic that elicited significant discussion was the concept of a failed state. When I suggested that Nigeria is a failed state and that the state of its electricity supply is one of the factors contributing to this there was much discussion. Who says that Nigeria is a failed state? Who are the judges of what constitutes a failed state? What is the definition of a failed state? This is not a label that a country will easily accept. There are those who call Nigeria a failed state but this is hotly contested. Is the concept of a failed state useful?

Then we discussed the phasing out of fossil fuels. There was general agreement that this needs to happen, but it is the first-world countries that put most of the carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Although they have committed to reducing their greenhouse gas emissions the Ukrainian war and the resurgence of coal demand are revealing. Germany has restarted its coal power stations. Coal prices have reached record highs. Coal miners are maximising production and making record profits.

After some discussion, most of the group accepted the assumptions and we moved on.

There is nothing more persuasive than the obvious. The obvious is essentially a shortcut an assumption no serious person would question. Is it now obvious that we need to deal with climate change and phase out fossil fuels? Thirty years ago, this was not obvious. If it is now obvious, when should we deal with this? Not this year because of the Ukranian war? We will deal with this next year and the year after that. This reminds me of the sign that I have seen at several bars, “free beer tomorrow”. How good are we at making sacrifices today for a better tomorrow?

What do you consider obvious dear readers? Is it not obvious that we need a reliable supply of electricity?

Thank you for all the ideas and comments. I really appreciate them and please keep them coming.

Regards

Bruce