Ruminations on the 5th Covid wave, personal risk, and your demise

Covid Waves in Gauteng which includes Johannesburg

Aweh dearly beloved fellow ruminants & groupies in day 23 of no lockdown.

Period as an ivory tower academic 29 days

One of my groupies (correction friend) and I have been having a feisty debate about risk and mortality. This friend is sufficiently feisty that I could not call her a groupie without fear of meaningful retribution, so friend it is. This friend is not to be trifled with and we have had many very spirited debates. Sometimes we do not agree but I do learn a lot in the process. This friend is not about making you feel warm and fuzzy about yourself. I value my friends and people who take me out of my comfort zone and hold up a mirror and force me to think about my very deficient self. Although my initial reaction may be grumpiness and irritation I try, sometimes imperfectly and slowly, to get over myself. For uncritical love and adulation get a Labrador.

The Covid-19 state of emergency in South Africa ended 23 days ago. Fantastic news? South Africa has had four Covid waves and here comes the 5^th one. https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-04-25-omicron-subvariants-rise-in-prevalence-as-south-africas-positivity-rate-jumps-overnight/. The featured graph, supplied to me by my friend, looks very ominous. Here we go again. The summer 2021 Omicron wave in South Africa was something of a non-event in terms of hospitalisations and fatalities. A narrative is that South African herd immunity coupled with vaccination and a surmised decrease in the severity of Covid variants explains this outcome. So, is there nothing to fear from the 5^th wave? The truth is we don’t know. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/30/uk-near-record-covid-cases-three-myths-omicron-pandemic?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other. It is not a given that there won’t be a 6^th and 7^th wave or that a future variant might not be severe.

Then there is the nasty issue that the long-term effects of having been infected with Covid are unknown. It is known that some viruses can have health effects that linger on for decades eventually leading to devastating diseases like Parkinson’s disease. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20220127-could-covid-19-still-be-affecting-us-in-decades-to-come.

So, there is a lot to be concerned about and there may be some unpleasant outcomes. Perhaps Parkinson’s disease is in your or my future? How should we react to this and how should you react? Risk mitigation is in order. The conundrum is how much risk mitigation and what is the role of government. What should you do?

Our family is vaccinated, and the overwhelming scientific evidence shows the benefit of vaccination in preventing serious disease or death if not contracting a less severe dose of Covid. Now, what about masks, and what kind of mask? The gold standard is an N95 followed by a KN95, then a surgical mask followed by a cloth mask or buff. https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/health/a35383193/n95-vs-kn95-mask-differences/. If you are very risk-averse you should wear an N95 when you leave your house, and you should never take it off indoors, preferably ever. You should not go to any indoor public venues, restaurants, or bars because you will need to take your mask off.  Stay at home as far as possible and get things delivered.

If this works for you, so be it. I confess to complying with the minimum current legal requirements. I wear a buff and on weekends I dress up in women’s clothing and hang about in bars. Should the law intervene and try to force everyone to wear an N95 mask? In the context of the lawless South African society, this is both unaffordable and impractical. Are you virtuous if you wear an N95 mask and a reprobate if you wear a buff? Dearly beloved readers I leave it to you to make that value judgement.

Your death is inevitable but how do deal with the many risks that could shorten your life? This week I watched the excellent documentary, “The Alpinist”, about Marc-André Leclerc who engaged in free solo ascents of some of the most dangerous mountains in the world. He climbed alone with no ropes and no margin for error. He also died at age 25 in 2018. His body was never found, and it is speculated he was killed in an avalanche. Maybe of all the leading solo climbers of all time, half have died in the mountains. This is not an activity for the risk-averse. Should solo climbing be banned? Should the government intervene? Hell no! Apart from being too old would I also do this? Also, no but I have respect and a degree of admiration for those who do. At his memorial service, his mother said, “there is no such thing as a safe life”. Your life is not safe, and it will end, potentially badly.

For me a life lived seeking to minimise all risks of premature death is not worth living. There would be no motorcycles, cycling, fast cars, alcohol, dangerous sports, space travel, and a myriad of other things. Not to mention a nanny state banning everything. Where one draws the line is a matter of personal freedom and choice. Does everyone choose wisely? Who are you to say? Is the life of Marc-André Leclerc better or worse than a boring accountant who took as few risks as possible then developed severe senile dementia at 85 and spent his last few years in an institution not knowing who he was or recognising anyone? Apart from not knowing who or what you are, in the last stages of Alzheimer’s disease you lose the ability to swallow and choke on your food and need to be fed with a tube.  Perhaps that boring accountant is a boring engineer who wears pink on Fridays. There is a history of senile dementia in our family.

It is hard to deal with the fact that you are mortal and that as you get older the sands of time will run out for you and the end may not be pleasant. The quality of my remaining time is more important than the quantity and if a buff causes me to catch another dose of Covid which kills me or causes me to develop Parkinson’s in 10 years then so be it and euthanasia looms. Despite my self-diagnosed narcissistic personality disorder, I realise that it’s not just about me and that I and my fellow buff wearers out there are a risk to the cloth of society and eternal damnation potentially awaits.

Thank you very much for your comments and suggestions and please keep them coming.

Regards

Bruce