Period as a semi-retired pensioner: 240 days
Johannesburg is now enjoying the start of the 4th wave of Covid 19 which appears to be caused by the omicron variant of the Covid-19 virus. This variant was identified by scientists in South Africa who immediately announced their results about a week ago. The response was swift and brutal. The messenger was promptly executed. It was called the South African variant although it is not known where it originated, and it has been detected in several other countries. Travel bans were immediately implemented, and travel chaos is unfolding. Trips and weddings have been cancelled and the summer tourism season is looking bleak. Tourism is a very important part of the South African economy and so we now have more economic devastation. Let’s see how omicron spreads in the rest of the world. My best guess is that it is already too late, and an omicron-led 4th wave is coming to you wherever you are. Blame the savages from Africa. The Chinese are off the hook as are the Indians who are to blame for the delta variant. The delta variant is so last season. Anybody who is anybody is moving on to omicron.
Now what about Fermi estimation and what is that and why is it important. In physics or engineering education, a Fermi problem, Fermi question, Fermi estimate, is an estimation technique designed to teach approximation of scientific or other problems, by means of a back-of-the-envelope calculation. The estimation technique is named after physicist Enrico Fermi as he was known for his ability to make good approximate calculations with little or no actual data. Fermi problems typically involve making justified guesses about quantities and their variance or lower and upper bounds.
A classic original Fermi question was: How many piano tuners are there in Chicago? The Fermi estimate is 58. https://www.wired.com/2014/08/how-to-solve-crazy-open-ended-google-interview-questions/. The approach involves breaking down the problem into logical assumptions such as:
1. How often pianos are tuned
2. How long it takes to tune a piano
3. How many hours a year does the average piano tuner work?
4. The number of pianos in Chicago
You can make logical estimates for each of these and then do the simple calculation. It is interesting to me that Google poses Fermi questions in job interviews, and you then need to do your best in the interview. They are testing how you think and the quality of your thinking. This gives me insight into why Google is so successful. The success of large organisations is determined by the quality of their thinking and not the quantity. The interview question was, how much does the Empire State Building weigh? Look at the back of the envelope calculation in the link. This then leads me to Young’s first conjecture:
Organisations which employ Fermi analysis as part of their core business approach will be much more successful than those that don’t.
Throughout my academic and commercial career, I have been confronted with many complex problems. My preferred approach is to always start with writing down a Fermi estimate calculation and then refine the assumptions and improve the calculation until it is good enough. Many of the problems I faced are related to evaluating the commercial and technical viability of a particular project or problem. Often it is the case that a particular project is not viable and then this quickly becomes apparent from your initial estimations. You can then look for something more promising without wasting too much time and money.
An alternative approach much favoured in hierarchical bureaucratic process-driven organisations, is to assemble a (large) team to evaluate a particular new complex business concept or project favoured by the hippo (highest paid person’s opinion) at the top of the dominance hierarchy. A rigorous and detailed analysis is required. Your job title is linked to the project and the project is your job. In this case, the last thing that is wanted is someone doing a Fermi estimate shortcutting the rigorous and detailed analysis. That’s not sufficiently rigorous, it’s lazy and also threatens the status quo. And anyway, what do you know? The quantity of the thinking, following a rigorous process ticking all the boxes as per the policies and work procedures, is important. Many committees and review panels are involved. Let’s call this the rigorous approach. This leads me to Young’s second conjecture:
Organisations that employ the rigorous approach as their primary and sometimes only tool are correlated with poor performance and destruction of shareholder value.
In previous blogs, I did some Fermi estimates relating to direct air capture (DAC) as well as referencing others who have done the same. I have received quite a lot of criticism for this, but it is not based on the merits of the calculations I have done but rather on the necessity of making DAC successful for the future of our species. Some have conceded that current technologies such as the largest demonstration plant in the world are not commercially viable at a large scale (billions of tons of CO2 per annum). https://www.theverge.com/2021/9/9/22663597/largest-direct-air-capture-plant-c02-climeworks-iceland. It is suggested that this is part of a journey to a yet unknown technology that will be much better. If DAC has been deemed necessary and your title is Vice President of Direct Air Capture you had better believe it.
Now back to Covid 19. Apparently, someone, with nothing better to do, asked what the volume of all the Covid 19 viruses in the world is? Apparently, a Fermi analysis shows that they would all fit in a Coke can. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVgBjRFSMYs. Now if only we could purify these virus particles and put them all into a Coke can and launch the can into the sun. Is there a technology to do this? Our future depends on it. Perhaps Pfizer should create an Executive Vice President of Covid-19 purification with a suitable staff establishment. A thorough and rigorous effort is required.
This then brings me to my Fermi question on Covid 19. How many more Covid 19 waves and of what magnitude are in our future? South Africa leads the world in rugby (world number one) and Covid waves.
We can see the start of the Omicron 4th wave. What is the long-term future? Unfortunately, as a chemical engineer, I lack sufficient expertise and knowledge regarding epidemiology and viruses to do a Fermi analysis of this question. I consulted the font of all knowledge, Dr Google, and have to say I am somewhat disappointed with what I could find. I have attached a link for the best article I could find, from the journal Nature, which is more than a year old. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02278-5. Looks like this isn’t going away any time soon.
The start of the omicron wave in South Africa has reignited the vaccination debate in South Africa with a vengeance. I have discussed my views on vaccination in an earlier polemic on vaccination written at the beginning of this year. https://ruminantpinkfriday.com/2021/02/22/ruminations-on-polemics-covid-19-and-anti-vaxxers/. This week I was again confronted with the alternate reality that exists in anti-vaxxers’ minds that bears no relation to objective reality.
We are going to need to learn to live with Covid-19 and travel bans and repeated lockdowns are not the answer. Constantly evolving, newer and better vaccines with regular boosters may be part of the answer. Anti-vaxxers can become hermits or perhaps we will need to revive Apartheid and have fenced homelands for anti-vaxxers much like the leper colonies of the past.
Thank you very much for your comments and suggestions and please keep them coming.
Regards
Bruce
Ruminant Pink Friday 
In the days long ago at the start of the much disliked supposedly anti tech GPO – Fermi type analysis was the first tool of choice. Strange to read so many years later how a ardent Sastech Man should align with its use. Maybe that’s what made Paul Kruger such an accomplished leader in his time. Ruminations of another old man past his sell by date.
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I am afraid that South Africa’s laudable openness has coincided with a growing disquiet in the way that Covid is being handled in other countries and with a press that is losing the plot. In the case of the UK Government, a cavalier attitude on a number of issues which are currently being severely questioned, means that the variant reported by South Africa has initiated a government orchestrated distraction to take the spotlight of itself. Banning flights from Johannesburg is guaranteed to grab the headlines and take Boris’s foibles off the front pages. The perfect storm for you comes from a press that has thrown hard facts out off the window and prefers to use its ill informed and amateurish resources on exhaustive and scientifically non existent speculation. Sigh.
If it’s any consolation, I was so impressed with the South African medical personnel that I saw on the news that they would be my go to people for information in future.
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The purpose of the panic-mongering is to create demand for the vaccines.
The coverup is ending. The FDA has been forced to release docs showing a floor of 1223 deaths in the first three months alone. That’s a minimum count. And it’s just for the Pfizer vaccine. Responsible people would try to get a scientific estimate of the actual undercounting, but it seems that being responsible isn’t of interest to the medical bureaucrats.
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I thought for a moment about marking this comment as spam or trashing it but then decided that is not proper. That does not change my view that your statement is incoherent evidence free nonsense. The scientific evidence for the efficacy of vaccines is overwhelming.
I doubt it will be helpful for me to point you to the many evidence based studies. The notion that medical technocrats and academics across the entire world are all part of a giant conspiracy does not bear scrutiny. The South African medical establishment is not beholden to Pfizer and medical aids like Discovery have every commercial incentive to adopt the optimal strategy to deal with COVID. If the Pfizer vaccine killed a lot of patients this will cost them a lot of money. They also have extensive data on their 1.34 million members and competent data analysis which they have shared. But then again perhaps that has been falsified because Pfizer is secretly compensating them. But then again perhaps not.
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I guess actual deaths which the FDA tried unsuccessfully to cover up don’t somehow count as evidence in your view.
And the evidence is quite clear that covid vaccines do not provide statistically significant protection from covid. The supporting evidence from a combination of FDA documents and a six month safety paper follows.
22,000 people in each of the vaccine and placebo arms. Two deaths from covid in the placebo arm and one death from covid in the vaccine arm. The difference is not statistically significant. And did I mention that there were five extra deaths from all causes in the vaccine arm which ARE statistically significant?
Pfizer covered up the data and all your studies are worthless. Now the FDA is producing the data because of FOIA requests and it shows the sham. So all the previous studies based on cherry-picked data are now null and void.
The science is indeed very clear that the vaccines produce no statistically significant benefit against covid mortality and produce statistically significant net harm.
Or did you miss these facts in your reading of the science? Do you need me to link them for you?
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