Ruminations on Energy – The Master Resource, Oompa Loompas, and Hopium

The logo for hopium

Aweh dearly beloved fellow Ruminants & Groupies in day 598 of Re-Modified Lock Down Level 1 and with alcohol.

Period as a semi-retired pensioner: 219 days

This week I am going to go back into my comfort zone and discuss energy. This is extremely topical both in South Africa and globally. In the South African context, we have had an extended spate of “load shedding” at level 4. This generally entails two (or three) two-hour power cuts per day. In addition, the current high oil prices and poor exchange rate have translated into record fuel prices. We are having our noses rubbed into the importance of energy. Globally the COP 26 conference in Glasgow has just concluded where the agenda for the global energy transition to net-zero has been discussed.

Energy is the master resource and for South Africans load shedding rams this point home. Electricity is essential to every country in the world and South Africa is being severely hampered by insufficient electricity and the poor suffer the most. So much has been written about this but the root cause of the problem is political. All infrastructure, including electricity, is best left to engineers and technocrats, the Oompa Loompas of the modern anti-science society. Infrastructure is extremely capital intensive, takes decades to build, and requires very expensive maintenance. It is all about science and objective reality.

There is always a short-term benefit to neglecting infrastructure and using the money for short-term things like Bentleys, bonuses, corruption, gala banquets, and the like. Financial institutions are also very happy to provide loans for infrastructure businesses. The infrastructure slowly decays and then as it starts to collapse, and the infrastructure business is over-indebted you have a problem that can take decades to solve if it will ever be solved while politicians remain in charge.   Their favourite and populist solution often involves blaming and firing the remaining Oompa Loompas and substituting them with politicians. You can then guarantee that the problem will never be solved. The South African electricity problem is an extreme manifestation of exploitation of infrastructure by politicians, but it is by no means unique, and this is a global problem.

The climate change agenda is being led by politicians and the COP 26 conference and the pressure to transition to net zero is immense. This then brings me to “hopium” which was brought to my attention by one of my (many) groupies. Hopium is a merging of the word’s “hope” and “opium”. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/what-hopium-paul-martin/ . Hopium is the fuel of “green-wishing”, without which, green-washing wouldn’t be possible. Green wishing is wishful thinking which has us conclude, without a basis in fact, without the necessary weighing of benefits against disadvantages, that a particularly new thing is going to be our decarbonization salvation. And green wishing is at epidemic proportions. We’ve spent the past 30 years basically hoping that Oompa Loompas like me will come up with some “Deus ex Machina” solution to the anthropomorphic global warming (AGW) risk.

Paul Martin an engineer who has popularised the term has this to say about hope:

“I’m with the great German author Goethe, who famously said, “In all things, hope is preferable to despair.” I qualify Goethe’s comment though, by saying that for hope to be worthy of us, our hope can’t be contrary to the most basic laws of the universe. False hope which can be demonstrated clearly to be false is more than merely a distraction- it’s a tool used by hucksters to separate us, and our governments, from our money”

The delivery mechanism of hopium is marketing hyperbole. These include beautifully prepared artistic PowerPoint slides, press releases, and YouTube videos.  To my Oompa Loompa Readers, I suggest you read the articles prepared by Paul Martin and judge for yourself.

For today I am just going to tackle one persistent and dangerous myth and untruth that the purveyors of hopium continue to peddle regarding green hydrogen. This is the notion that renewable electricity is intermittently free. https://www.leadventgrp.com/events/africa-green-hydrogen-forum/details?gclid=CjwKCAiAvriMBhAuEiwA8Cs5lZ_fJPBteyVKfOcecXVmRoVQC0Gx0yVMzcYeC2frJDsUDp59hyJgtxoCI7AQAvD_BwE

Here is the relevant quote:

“One of the main benefits of green hydrogen production, besides its clean carbon footprint, is the fact that the hydrogen facility is powered by the excess electricity produced during peak periods and which cannot otherwise be injected in a saturated power grid”

This statement is problematic on so many levels but let’s do some simple deconstruction. First, it is not true that there are no alternatives to using temporary excesses in electricity generation other than hydrogen production. Pumped hydro (pumping water up a hill and then running it through a turbine later) is a low-tech electricity storage mechanism that has been used in South Africa and globally for decades. There is also an enormous amount of research going into a myriad of electricity storage options including batteries. Excess electricity is not free and never will be.

Second, one needs to consider the intermittent nature of excess electricity. Perhaps this will occur for a couple of hours a day (unless it is cloudy or the wind isn’t blowing). For green hydrogen to fulfill its promises it will need to be implemented at a multi-Gigawatt scale. The technology for hydrogen electrolysers at this scale is still being developed but it is also never going to be cheap. Multi Gigawatt electrolysers will be capital intensive. Now, this capital-intensive kit will sit idle for most of the day.  This must translate into high operating costs. The interest on the loan to buy the electrolysers will keep accumulating 24 hours a day.

Third, one needs to consider the operation of large-scale process equipment. This is generally not like a light bulb which you can turn on and off at will. I confess to not being an electrolyser expert and would welcome speaking to an electrolyser Oompa Loompa. My supposition though is that it will at the very least not be efficient (if it is feasible) to be turning Gigawatt scale electrolysers on and off daily.

The marketing literature (hype) regarding the energy transition is poorly edited and riddled with unstated assumptions. It is written by politicians and marketers and Oompa Loompas who need to pay the rent.

There is going to be no free anything in the very difficult and costly transition to net-zero and if politicians remain in charge the South African load shedding example provides a very good glimpse into what may be in store globally.

Oompa Loompas of the world unite and throw off the yoke of the oppressor!

Thank you very much for your comments and suggestions and please keep them coming.

Regards

Bruce