Ruminations on Facing Uncomfortable Facts

Aweh dearly beloved fellow Ruminants & Groupies in day 577 of Re-Modified Lock Down Level 1 and with alcohol.

Period as a semi-retired pensioner: 198 days

This week I am going to focus on uncomfortable facts and how we respond to them.

I will start with a personal anecdote relating to uncomfortable facts before rubbing your noses in some chosen uncomfortable facts worthy of rumination.

Lurking, with intent, in the corner of our bathroom, hidden behind the bath, there is a scale. I don’t want to see it every day, so it is hidden but I know it is there. For a long time, I ignored its presence. We weren’t on speaking terms. After the most severe phase of lock down last year I had coffee with one of my (many) groupies and he looked much slimmer and healthier.

When I got home, I dusted off the scale. It said 105 kg which is the heaviest I have ever been. If my groupie could do it so, could I and I took his advice and copied his regimen, intermittent fasting. I have two meals a day, lunch, and supper, with no snacks and being a coffeeholic converted to black coffee with no sugar or sweetener. I set a target of 89 kg.

Now, more than a year later, I have not reached my target. At one stage I got down to 92 kg, but I am now fluctuating between 92 and 95kg. Too many beers and chocolates with my meals and my weekly meeting with the scale delivers an uncomfortable fact. Fast a bit harder and try to exercise more. Such is real life.

Objective reality exists and it is not there to comfort you or make you feel safe. It can also be highly offensive. Reality does not care about what you find offensive. Deal with it.

It is very human not to want to deal with reality because it is often brutal and unkind. We are all guilty of this at times but to the extent you can stare down reality the more you will be a force to be reckoned with and true to yourself and others. It is unfortunately the case that both individuals and organisations can ignore reality, and, for a time, they can be very successful. Pyramid or Ponzi schemes which come in a bewildering range of options are one example. Cults with charismatic leaders are another. Many businesses with a very hierarchical management structure require extreme deference to the CEO. Executives are chosen not for their technical proficiency but rather for their loyalty and devotion to the cause which is not rooted in reality. At some point reality intervenes and you have a crisis. In the inevitable investigation that follows there are usually many employees who knew uncomfortable facts, but it was not in their interests to reveal these facts when there is a good news culture.

There is perhaps no better current example of this than some of the hype surrounding the transition to net zero carbon with its extravagant promises. There is abundant (dumb?) venture capital out there and there is an enormous amount of activity. There are many interesting examples out there but let’s pick Nacero for example.  https://nacero.co/ . They are proposing to make gasoline from (renewable?) natural gas using methanol to gasoline (MTG) technology. This technology is commercially proven and has been around for decades but has not been very successful. There are good reasons for this. The technology is capital intensive and inefficient and makes a gasoline blending component high in aromatics. A 30 000 bbl/day plant is likely to have a capital cost more than $10 billion. The Nacero web site is very attractive and impressive.  I’m willing to wager a magnum of the crimson restorative beverage (Kanonkop Paul Sauer or equivalent) that no final investment decision (FID) of a Nacero plant greater than 30 000 bbl/day will be taken in the next 5 years. Any takers?

So, as promised, lets rub our noses in four uncomfortable facts in no particular order:

• Men are overwhelmingly better at chess than women. The world chess champion has never been a woman. The list of the top 100 players in the world is distinctly male. I am of course an alpha cisgender male and self-identify as such. My chess skills are frustratingly mediocre. Before you label me as misogynist, I will offer another uncomfortable statistic. 93% of the prison population in the USA is male and this is typical of the rest of the world.
• As of 2017, Nobel Prizes have been awarded to 902 individuals, of whom 203 or 22.5% were Jews, although the total Jewish population comprises less than 0.2% (15 million) of the world’s population. This means the percentage of Jewish Nobel laureates is at least 112 times above average. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Jewish_Nobel_laureates . As of 2021 there have been 13 Islamic Nobel laureates with 3 in the sciences. There are 1.8 billion Muslims in the world. I am not Jewish or Muslim. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Muslim_Nobel_laureates.
• Distinguished scientists are overwhelmingly atheist or agnostic.https://evolution-outreach.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1936-6434-6-33
• Big companies used to have a lifespan of 61 years (in 1958), it’s now down to 18. https://www.imd.org/research-knowledge/articles/why-you-will-probably-live-longer-than-most-big-companies/. Its not uncommon to see a spectacular decline. Just think Enron, Lehman brothers, Blackberry and Nokia.

There are many uncomfortable facts out there and perhaps the four that I have chosen says something about me. You, dear readers, are more than welcome to fact check any of this and correct me if I’m wrong. I would welcome this. Please also send me your own uncomfortable facts.

It can never be safe to state an uncomfortable fact. In Russia and indeed in South Africa it can cost you your life. It is one thing to state a fact, but it immediately begs the question why. It is often easy to jump to quick value judgements to suit a particular agenda. In reality the answer to the question why is often complicated.

Lasting and sustainable progress can only be made when people openly confront uncomfortable facts with humility, an open mind, a willingness to listen and put aside their preconceptions. The hippo (highest paid person’s opinion) needs to be controlled and tamed. https://corporate-rebels.com/hippo-effect/ All organisations have a dominance hierarchy and questioning the emperors’ clothes can cost you your career or worse consign you to being a lance corporal in the compliance department. The character and values of the emperor determine the fate of the organisation.

Thank you very much for your comments and suggestions and please keep them coming.

Regards

Bruce