Ruminations on magical thinking

Aweh, My Dearly Beloved Fellow Ruminants & Groupies

So, as you might have noticed, I have a thing about pink cows. This is probably a sign of a deeply disturbed mind. But there are other farm animals, and diversity and inclusion are important, so let’s give pigs a chance this week. Farm animal equity, if you like.

But let’s not confine ourselves to boring old pigs. Flying pigs are far more magical and interesting.

Magical Thinking: The Spark and the Spiral

Is this magical thinking?

What is magical thinking, anyway? It’s like believing you’re an exceptional, way-above-average lover just because you know you are, and people keep telling you. I know this. I’m told this daily.

But isn’t magical thinking essential for creativity and innovation?

Magical thinking is the reckless little gremlin behind every wild idea that actually works. It’s the mental equivalent of shouting You Only Live Once at the laws of physics and waiting for a miracle, and sometimes, shockingly, it lands.

Creativity needs that unhinged optimism, that delusional spark that says, “Yeah, a flying pig that delivers bacon to your doorstep? Let’s prototype it.”

Logic builds the engine, but magical thinking dares to ask if it can fart glitter and cure loneliness on the way.

The Reality Check: Enter the Bullshit

If you know me at all, you know what’s coming next. Yes, it’s a but.

But what about bullshit?

Sadly, reality still exists with pesky things like the laws of physics, human nature, economics, and thermodynamics. Damn and blast.

Now, when you see others deep in magical thinking, should you burst their bubble? That’s a complex question. Will they thank you? Will they even hear you?

It depends especially on where you sit in the dominance hierarchy.

For instance, there’s no point in my telling Donald he’s an unhinged, incoherent carnival barker detached from reality.

No, Donald, they’re not eating the dogs. No, they’re not eating the cats.
There, I’ve said it. I’ve called out the bullshit.

Will it change anything? Of course not. I’m an insignificant, irrelevant worm in the global hierarchy.

Harmless Delusions vs Harmful Fantasies

Let’s talk about people you actually interact with.

Some magical thinking is harmless. Does it really matter if someone believes they’re an exceptional lover or that the Earth is flat?

However, some magical thinking can cause real harm.

Take Ponzi schemes. They never get old. They’re the poster children of magical thinking. It doesn’t matter that they’re illegal or doomed to fail. They prey on human greed, and the moment you see someone else making money, poof! Rational thought is out the window.

Should I try to burst that bubble? No. It won’t work.

Nerd Alert: Decarbonisation and the SAF Fantasy

Here’s a nerdy digression; feel free to skip this bit if you value your time.

This week’s inspiration came from yet another LinkedIn post claiming that Power-to-X (PtX) will soon deliver affordable and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) at prices somewhat similar to today’s jet fuel.

Now, I’ve spent decades in the petrochemical process industries. I’ve studied thermodynamics. And here’s the thing: thermodynamics and magical thinking do not get along.

Yes, PtX can theoretically make SAF using renewable electricity, water, and CO₂ from the atmosphere. Does the science exist? Sure, in the same way mining rare earths on Mars “exists.” I can whip up a slick PowerPoint presentation, get invited to conferences, and rack up LinkedIn likes. I just need someone else to fund it, because there’s no way I’m putting my own money into it.

Confessions and Disclaimers

Now, before you ask: Yes, I’ve been wrong. Yes, I’ve bullshitted. And no, I don’t know everything.

But I did bother to study this in detail. If you’ve got time (or beer), I’m happy to talk you through the data. Rebuttals welcome, especially over drinks.

So, let me say it clearly: PtX SAF is magical thinking. Is it better than a Ponzi scheme? You decide. Do I have friends working in PtX? Yes. Will they read this or care? Probably not. If they do, great, I’ll see you at the bar.

Wrapping Up: When Magical Thinking Matters

Some magical thinking doesn’t matter. I really am an exceptional lover. Some magical thinking is dangerous. Ponzi schemes. And some sit awkwardly in between, like PtX SAF.

Magical thinking is slowing down serious decarbonisation. And that’s a problem.

Does anyone have to listen to me?

Well, yes, my students. Poor souls. They’ve got assignments and exams. Pity them.

Will the people who actually matter listen to me on PtX?

Probably not.

So, until the flying pigs land and the pink cows start unionizing, I’ll keep pissing into the wind armed with thermodynamics and a deeply inappropriate love for farm animals.

Till next week

Bruce