Aweh dearly beloved fellow ruminants & groupies
Given that the South African election is in a few weeks this allows me the opportunity to engage in a free and frank exchange about aspects of South African politics from my own limited and biased perspective that some may find offensive.
With elections looming, let’s dissect the Department of Trade, Industry, and Competition’s (DTIC) report on industrial policy, hilariously titled “Industrial Policy & Strategy Review, Transforming Vision into Action: Charting South Africa’s Industrial Future” This report is either a cruel joke or proof of parallel universes.
The report is 124 pages long and is a nauseating mixture of excuses and boasting while ignoring objective reality. The report will only be useful if it were to be printed on soft, perforated double-ply paper.
It acknowledges that GDP per capita has been stagnant in South Africa since 2008 but then provides six handy excuses for our dismal showing. COVID-19 (of course), civil unrest in 2021, floods in 2022, the Ukraine war, energy shortages that led to load shedding, and port and logistic challenges. Luckily in the future, there will be no adverse events and the future looks tickety boo. The fact that other parts of the world like the United States have navigated similar and more difficult adversities and yet have grown is glossed over.
Could DTIC have had a role in hampering South Africa’s progress? Is there some introspection about whether the root causes of things like the port and logistics problems might have involved government and the DTIC. Not at all. Mirror mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all? DTIC! Once the excuses are done it is taken as a given that another industrial policy provides the key to a glorious future. The report boasts about how many “masterplans” it has created. As if this is an achievement in and of itself. These are central planning documents of highly dubious quality.
There is a long history of producing these “plans”. When the incumbent minister, Ebrahim Patel, took over from Rob Davies, he renamed them masterplans. Previously they were known as Industrial Policy Action Plans (IPAPs). In a previous life, I was the unfortunate victim selected to engage with some of these IPAPs relating to the chemical sector. I will never get that time back.
Consultants had been engaged to produce the initial draft. These consultants were devoid of any expertise on how the global and South African chemical industry work. Ambitious and ridiculous targets and plans to grow the industry were laid out. Extensive comments and inputs were made and eventually, a new consultant who did understand the chemical industry was appointed. Some of our comments were then worked into the plan which was eventually published. Was the plan implemented? No. Soon it became time for another plan. You see the plan is the objective itself.
The DTIC then continues to boast and take credit for all manner of private sector projects such as those in the renewable electricity space. Many of these are projects embarked upon out of desperation to deal with the load-shedding crisis.
Seven glorious masterplans “covering” over 700,000 workers. Yet, unemployment skyrocketed to 32.1% in 2023, with 7.9 million jobless folks. Income inequality? We’re world champions!
Is there a causal link between these master plans and our mess? Hard to say definitively. There’s a whole zoo of problems out there: bad education, crime, state capture, crumbling infrastructure…you name it.
Maybe another master plan is the magic bullet! Who am I to judge, right?
What is the root cause of South African unemployment and inequality? I have provided my own strident perspective, but I might be wrong. The problem is wickedly complicated. I am often told I’m misinformed and often I am.
But whatever my views or your views are there is no arguing with objective reality. Unemployment is increasing and inequality is getting worse. Is there a perfect master plan out there that can solve this?
If my ability to solve these issues is on par with my chess skills, maybe we should leave it to the “democratically elected professional politicians”. Surely geniuses like Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Cyril Rum and Cola hold all the answers, right?
But hold on my dearly beloved readers, I underestimate you. You obviously have the solutions. So, send me your master plans. Let’s hear them!
I want to express my gratitude for all the ideas and comments received. I genuinely appreciate them, and please continue to share your thoughts.
Regards
Bruce
Ruminant Pink Friday 