Aweh dearly beloved fellow ruminants & groupies
Let’s kick off todays blog with the concept of bullshit jobs before considering the seemingly unrelated concept of forecasts. The term was coined by the late academic misfit, anthropologist, and anarchist David Graeber. I am a groupie of his. Misfits are much more interesting and creative than conformists.
He had a chequered career in academia and generated a lot of controversy. He got up the noses of the establishment aristocracy of academia in America. He has an outstanding record of scholarship but his anti-establishment views and knack for stirring controversy became too much for Yale University. They got rid of him.
So, what is a bullshit job? The working definition is: “a form of employment that is so completely pointless, unnecessary, or pernicious that even the employee cannot justify its existence”. He wrote a book about bullshit jobs.
While one might assume that bullshit jobs are mainly prevalent in government this is not necessarily the case. It’s commonly believed that in the private sector, market competition would eliminate such inefficiencies. However, the proliferation of service sector jobs in companies is less about economic necessity and more about what David Graeber termed ‘managerial feudalism.’ Employers require subordinates to justify their positions in the hierarchy and to maintain competitive status and power.
In society, the Puritan-capitalist work ethic is to be credited for making the labour of capitalism into religious duty: that workers did not reap advances in productivity as a reduced workday because, as a societal norm, they believe that work determines their self-worth, even as they find that work pointless. This cycle is a “profound psychological violence” and “a scar across our collective soul”.
I speculate that the emergence of disruptive technology like artificial intelligence (AI) will bring about significant productivity gains, leading to the replacement of many meaningful jobs by AI. Ideally, this shift should afford us more leisure time to focus on activities we enjoy, but such a scenario contradicts the Puritan work ethic. While new jobs may emerge, they may not be strictly necessary. This begs the question: will there be a rise in bullshit jobs?
So, what relevance does all of this have to forecasts? The featured image displays long-term oil price forecasts compiled by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Each year, they release such forecasts. But how accurate have they been? To put it bluntly, the forecasts are appalling. Can one reliably predict oil prices? No, it’s impossible. And if you doubt my word, well, I’ve conveniently written a blog post on the matter. Self-referencing is a must, after all.
So why does the IEA keep banging their head against a brick wall? Well, because there is a demand for these forecasts. The fact that they are horrible does not decrease the demand. It’s actually far worse than that. At least the IEA forecasts are free. But is free good enough? No of course not. You get what you pay for. All the reputable and expensive oil and gas consultancies produce proprietary forecasts that you must pay for. That must make them good right? Unfortunately not. Despite taking your money even they can’t do the impossible.
In a past chapter of my life, I found myself at a two-hour presentation by a globally recognised guru in the oil industry, representing one of the premier consultancies. The presentation was a fascinating dive into how the oil industry operates, replete with facts and figures detailing exploration, production costs, technological advancements, and supply and demand dynamics. I gleaned a wealth of knowledge from it. However, the mood shifted when the discussion turned to long-term forecasts and the intricate proprietary model crafted by their modelling department. While I found this segment underwhelming, many in the audience seemed thoroughly impressed.
After the presentation, during the tea and coffee break, I had the opportunity to have a private conversation with the guru. When I pointed out the track record of their previous forecasts and asked why the new one would be any better, he paused, looked at his shoes for a long time, and then engaged in a candid conversation. He admitted to having little confidence in the new forecast; it was likely to be as horrible as its predecessors. However, he emphasised that clients demand forecasts and expect a compelling rationale to accompany them. Consultants, he explained, simply cater to their clients’ wishes. If clients want artisanal snake oil, that’s what they’ll receive. He also directed my attention to the disclaimer at the end of the presentation, meticulously crafted by high-priced lawyers. Essentially, he cautioned, one should take the forecasts with a bucket full of salt, though the disclaimer was in a minuscule font at the bottom of the page.
He was essentially admitting that working in the oil price modelling and forecasting department is a bullshit job. Of course, it’s not only oil price forecasting but the forecasting of many other things that are unforecastable that is bullshit.
In the spirit of transparency, I feel compelled to share that I can speak from personal experience regarding bullshit jobs. I’ve not only observed them but have also found myself thrust into such roles at times. While some find contentment in simply performing the tasks they’re paid for, others, like me, are drawn to delve deeper into the realm of objective reality. The notion of “profound psychological violence” resonates with individuals like me who seek to uncover the underlying truths. Fortunately, there is counselling, medication, and my devoted groupies.
Rest in peace David Graeber, you will not be forgotten (by me at least).
I want to express my gratitude for all the ideas and comments received. I genuinely appreciate them, and please continue to share your thoughts.
Regards
Bruce
Ruminant Pink Friday 