The crater left after the bridge at Nthulungwane was washed away
Aweh dearly beloved fellow ruminants & groupies on day 9 of no lockdown.
Period as an ivory tower academic 15 days
The last 18 months have not been kind to KZN. Covid 19 was rampant in KZN during the Beta strain-led second wave in December 2021 and this was followed by the Delta and Omicron waves. Tourism is an important component of the KZN economy including many European tourists who escape their winter to enjoy the warm African sun. This has been paused for two years. Then in July last year, there was an outbreak of feral looting and rioting which caused an estimated R16 billion in stolen stock and damage to infrastructure. https://www.news24.com/citypress/news/durban-looting-aftermath-45-000-businesses-affected-r16-billion-in-lost-stock-and-damaged-infrastructure-20210714. The true cost of lost business and the destruction of business confidence is multiples of this number.
Over the last week, the region has experienced the worst floods in 60 years. A weather station at Mount Edgecombe on the outskirts of Durban received 307 millimetres of rainfall within 24 hours on Monday — the most since it began gathering data 62 years ago and almost double the previous high in 2019, according to the South African Weather Service. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-12/south-africa-halts-shipping-at-key-port-of-durban-after-floods. The devastation is biblical, and the true cost will only emerge in the months to come.
Over the last few years, there have been several epic floods around the world. I was vaguely aware of recent floods in Australia which were the worst in recorded history. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/09/this-is-an-emergency-australias-extreme-weather-crises-spark-anger-at-climate-inaction. I have several friends and colleagues who live in Houston, and I watched in awe of the carnage wrought by Hurricane Harvey in 2017. I watched the destruction of the houses of friends some of whom were uninsured.
Owing to my (self-diagnosed) narcissistic personality disorder I was somewhat detached concerning the flooding in Australia and Houston. I did not have skin in the game. KZN is different. We have a family home in Southbroom on the KZN South Coast which has been in our family for 50 years. It is on a steep slope facing the sea. Just this week I made a final payment on a renovation project which obeyed the iron law of megaprojects. Over budget and schedule. Note to self – stop doing building projects.
This week we had our first guests in the newly renovated house. The new downstairs bathroom has experienced flooding and there is a sinkhole in the garden. For now, it has stopped raining, but more rain is forecast for the Easter weekend, and we can just hope it is not severe. Our neighbours below us experienced a mudslide threatening to divert the torrent of water into their house. It was only a heroic effort by them and local volunteers that managed to remove the mud and divert the water around the house. I had a brief bout of depression when the photographs from our house started coming through on Wednesday evening. Then I remembered my British heritage – “Keep Calm and Carry On”. But, perhaps, it is also my Afrikaner heritage that also prevailed. For I am a mongrel you see. Pretty resilient people Afrikaners.
Our problems are however relatively minor. Precious, our loyal domestic worker, has had her house flooded and many homes have been flooded and washed away. Electricity and water supply have been disrupted. Only once the clouds have moved away and the floods subsided will the true extent of the damage be clear. The Easter weekend is typically a tourist high season. Not this year.
Australia and the United States are affluent societies and are capable of rapidly rebuilding after their floods. This is not the case in KZN which is an ANC government stronghold. Decades of mismanagement and corruption have allowed infrastructure to decay and have bankrupted local government and impoverished the poor even more. Rebuilding after last July’s looting is also in progress. It is highly debatable as to what extent the corrupt and incompetent government will be able to assist the poor to rebuild their lives. Yet rebuild we must. We cannot give up. The tourism potential remains, and the local communities are resourceful and resilient. We will never surrender.
KZN has faced a trifecta of crises over the last 18 months. It could be argued that two of these are natural disasters and only the rioting and looting is a man-made own goal. However, when you look at the Australian reference and any number of other references you see that the conclusion has already been reached that climate change is to blame. One can engage in a lengthy academic and scientific debate regarding whether you can scientifically link specific weather and flooding events to climate change, but I suspect this is becoming increasingly irrelevant. The jury of public opinion has already delivered its verdict. Guilty.
These events are going to add to the increasingly dominant narrative that climate change is real and causing extreme weather events although I suspect that extreme weather events in third world countries like South Africa will not have nearly the same impact as those in first world countries.
What does the future hold for KZN? In the local elections in November 2021, ANC support declined to 42%. Ongoing ANC factional infighting and continuing corruption and incompetence are finally showing at the ballot box. It is highly unlikely that this government will be capable of meaningfully helping poor people recover from this latest disaster. More corruption scandals where disaster relief funds are plundered are likely. The electorate is already losing patience and one can only hope that democracy triumphs in 2024 and that the ANC is convincingly defeated.
This image circulating on social media says it better than I can.
There is tremendous resilience in the local communities in KZN and it is these local communities where the most promise lies. Let’s hope that there is some mean reversion and a much better next 18 months.
We get knocked down but we get up again.
Thank you very much for your comments and suggestions and please keep them coming.
Regards
Bruce
Ruminant Pink Friday 