Period as a semi-retired pensioner: 330 days
Perhaps it reflects a lack of imagination that I provide a sequel to my Christmas hydrogen blog only two months after Christmas. https://ruminantpinkfriday.com/2021/12/24/christmas-eve-ruminations-regarding-a-christmas-grinch-innovation-green-hydrogen-and-the-next-financial-crisis/. The need for this sequel was spurred by the recent official launch of the Hydrogen Society Roadmap for South Africa by the minister of the department of higher education, science and innovation, Blade Nzimande. https://www.dst.gov.za/index.php/resource-center/strategies-and-reports/3574-hydrogen-society-roadmap-for-south-africa-2021. I have taken the time to start going through this.
Some of my more conservative and well-meaning friends and colleagues have urged me to stay below the parapet regarding the hydrogen roadmap because this is a good news story supported by both industry and government and all that I will achieve by being critical of this is that I will be shunned, unemployable and will not get consulting work. Perhaps there is some truth in this, but I hope not. Since I am now semi-retired it is however a risk, I’m willing to take. Sometimes when I worked for a corporate, I was called in for the quiet fireside chat where it was explained that I need to support management and, in the end, I did what I was paid to do. This no longer applies and instead requests to stay quiet bring out my inner ruminant. My well-meaning friends also vastly overestimate my complete lack of influence and importance in the world.
So, is the hydrogen roadmap undoubtedly a good news story? I will argue that there are many more important things that South Africa should be focussing on and that trying to lead the world in pioneering and innovating the hydrogen economy is arrogant, unrealistic, and ultimately bad for the poor in South Africa. South Africa is not a wealthy country and is one of the most unequal societies in the world.
South Africa has been facing an electricity crisis and has been suffering from load shedding (intermittent scheduled power cuts) since 2008 and there is no end in sight. One cannot over emphasise the economic consequences of this and how it is holding South Africa back and how the poor suffer disproportionately.
The production of hydrogen is an extremely electricity-intensive activity using renewable electricity. The hydrogen roadmap envisages very big >5GW of green hydrogen production and will involve the export of green hydrogen. I make the extremely simple point that South Africa should prioritise the internal electricity crisis and the elimination of load shedding. Electricity-intensive mega projects exporting hydrogen (electricity) should not be considered until load shedding is eliminated.
South Africa has limited financial and human capital and to the extent that this is used to drive ambitious electricity export megaprojects, this will crowd out investment and tie up scarce South African skilled human capital better used in solving the domestic electricity crisis.
The South African electricity crisis is only one manifestation of the infrastructural crises facing the country. The provision of water and sewage treatment are two other crises. South Africa is regressing in the provision of basic infrastructure and utilities which were ushered in by the 2nd industrial revolution and transformed the lives of the poor globally at the beginning of the 20th century. Water, electricity, and sewage treatment are basic unsexy hygiene factors. The poor cannot afford their own solar installation, boreholes, and septic tanks to leave the grid. Provision of these basic utilities to the poor is transformative to their daily lives. Export of green hydrogen not so much if they don’t have electricity, water, and sewage treatment.
One of my groupies alerted me to the concept of a dead cat strategy which originated from Australian politics. “There is one thing that is absolutely certain about throwing a dead cat on the dining room table – and I don’t mean that people will be outraged, alarmed, disgusted. That is true but irrelevant. The key point is that everyone will shout, ‘Jeez, mate, there’s a dead cat on the table!’ In other words, they will be talking about the dead cat – the thing you want them to talk about – and they will not be talking about the issue that has been causing you so much grief.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_cat_strategy. The real issue is load shedding.
South African politicians have learned to perfect the dead cat strategy. Let’s go back to the presidential commission set up to create a 4th industrial revolution presidential strategy involving new smart cities and bullet trains. Well, how about that? WTF! (Wow that’s fantastic!) https://businesstech.co.za/news/technology/324961/ramaphosa-dreams-of-skyscrapers-and-bullet-trains-but-heres-what-happened-to-the-last-r84-billion-smart-city/. How’s that going? Perhaps we can build a new smart city with brand new and working infrastructure and just abandon Johannesburg with its decaying infrastructure. Alternatively, can we focus on dealing with the 2nd industrial revolution before we have a strategy for bullet trains? How is the passenger rail agency of South Africa (PRASA) doing regarding slow trains? Not so well apparently. https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-11-10-sfiso-buthelezi-the-mp-who-derailed-prasa/. Perhaps fix that first.
So, is the hydrogen roadmap another dead cat? My criticism of the hydrogen strategy goes well beyond the issue of whether South Africa should prioritise the hydrogen economy but suggests it is overhyped. I will not repeat the content of my December blog but just repeat one interesting reference. https://www-forbes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.forbes.com/sites/jamesmorris/2021/12/11/hydrogen-is-not-a-fuel-its-a-cult/amp/. South Africa is a poor country and can ill afford potentially losing billions of dollars and getting distracted by pioneering green hydrogen megaprojects. The risks in a pioneering green hydrogen project are enormous and include pioneering technology risks as well as significant market and supply chain risks. The shipping infrastructure to export green hydrogen does not exist and the technical challenges are formidable.
The hydrogen roadmap can go into the dead cat filing cabinet right next to the report of the presidential commission into the 4th industrial revolution. Meanwhile in the real-world South Africa hasn’t mastered the 2nd industrial revolution. Maybe that needs a presidential commission?
So, am I just a party-pooper and against everything? Not at all. The transformation of South Africa’s ageing electricity infrastructure, eliminating load shedding, and reducing the carbon footprint is urgent and in the interests of all South Africans. More focus on this and more human and financial capital directed to this than leading the green hydrogen economy. Presidential commissions? Not so much.
Thank you very much for your comments and suggestions and please keep them coming.
Regards
Bruce
Ruminant Pink Friday 
Not all electricity is equal in use or availability. Sun produced electricity in the day is fairly useless capacity at night unless you have very expensive storage capacity.
Can you make hydrogen by day only off solar power ? If you can, electricity for grid use is then a connected, but different animal, and not as correlated to general electricity demand as you make it out to be.
The matter of skills use is a very general one, but I guess most, if not all, of the skills, equipment, and money for hydrogen will be inward investment oriented, and therefore also connected, but not correlated to South Africa’s general malaise.
I’d leave the politics to politicians, finance to financiers, and stick to the science based economics so all the “hangers on” can understand if the science is sound as the primary foundation. I’m really curious to know if it makes technical sense from an energy management perspective. How efficient can this be ?
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As far as I can tell the whole green hydrogen story is not properly scientifically or economically coherent. The idea of only making hydrogen when the sun is shining certainly means that a lot of expensive capital equipment is sitting idle 16 out of 24 hours a day. We are talking GW scale electrolysers and I don’t know how efficient and practical it will be to turn them on and off every day. The capital needs to be rewarded and a capacity factor of 33% is going to add to costs. They are also talking about green ammonia plants and ammonia plants definitely need to run continuously although I guess you can store hydrogen made during the day to use at night. Dealing with electricity storage is absolutely essential as one moves to net zero . The question of what you do with the hydrogen is also important and uncertain. The idea of using hydrogen as a heating fuel or to generate electricity is I think not sensible and will be extremely inefficient and expensive. Using hydrogen sensibly is where I think Liebrich’s ladder is useful. It is this market uncertainty that adds to the riskiness of pioneering green hydrogen.
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