Period as a semi-retired pensioner: 135 days
Last week I commented on climate change denialism and the recently released IPCC report on the science of climate change. This provoked some comments regarding the fact that I worked in the fossil fuel industry for three decades and that I have benefited handsomely from it. Am I not to blame for climate change and as with all dirty little secrets should I not just be quiet about it? The issue of apportioning blame is a very human obsession and entirely suitable for Ruminant Pink Friday ™ and quietness is not in my nature. The fossil fuel industry has not been quick to accept the growing reality of climate change but as the evidence piles up and the political momentum to deal with greenhouse gas emissions gathers steam it is no longer feasible to deny climate change and you need to be seen to be part of the solution.
So, who is to blame for climate change? The simple answer is that we all are. Virtually every human being on the planet has benefited and continues to benefit from the fossil fuel industry. This industry was the key enabler of the industrial revolution. Without fossil fuels we would still be living in a pre-industrial society where life was nasty brutish and short. Less than half of the people born in the mid-19th century England made it past their 50th birthday. In contrast, 97% of the people born in 21st century England and Wales can expect to live longer than 50 years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy.
If you still feel that the fossil fuel industry is responsible for climate change and you are not, may I suggest you stop supporting the industry. I propose, as a starting step, you sell all your petrol or diesel cars and only use an e-bike for all your personal transportation. You may not use Uber, taxis, or buses. We can debate trains but preferably not. Air travel is strictly forbidden. Once you have reached this milestone, I can provide you with further consulting services (for a small fee) to help you reduce your personal carbon footprint to net zero. Much is still required. I warn you that significant personal suffering will be involved. You will need to pay for your sins.
The fossil fuel industry is also closely intertwined with the global chemical industry which supplies a multitude of products essential for modern life. To touch on just one example. The modern commodity chemical business started in Germany with the industrial production of ammonia as a nitrogen fertiliser. Nitrogen fertiliser is one of the factors that has allowed the expansion of food production which has enabled the human population to grow from 1.6 billion in 1900 to the current 7.8 billion. Global population is forecast to be ±10.9 billion in 2100.
If fossil fuel use were banned next year the world would face an immediate crisis with mass starvation and anarchy. Today, every person on the planet, including Greta Thunberg, requires and benefits from the fossil fuel industry.
However, we know that the fossil fuel industry is not sustainable and that ultimately, we need to transition to renewable energy. It has become fashionable to bash the fossil fuel industry and to blame it for our current position. My 17-year-old son, Connor, wrote an essay about how my generation has saddled his generation with the enormous climate change problem and we will die and leave them to sort out the mess. It is also true that without the fossil fuel industry it is doubtful that either of us would have been born. However without further prevarication, I accept that I am also significantly to blame and that the fossil fuel industry is also to blame.
Moving along swiftly, the question now is about how fast we will transition to a net zero world and what it will take. I have the benefit of having been a chemical engineering academic and of working in the petrochemical industry for three decades. Currently the academics are having a field day dreaming up technical solutions for a net zero world with, for example, the green hydrogen economy. The solutions are generally based on known science and are theoretically doable. What academics are not so good at dealing with are the commercial, economic, and practical realities of what this transition will entail.
The value of current fossil fuel and related petrochemical industry infrastructure can be measured in the tens of trillions of dollars and was constructed over many decades. Almost all of this will need to be replaced. The technology to produce green hydrogen at the multi gigawatt scale required is still being developed. On the production side the development of cost effective and efficient process technologies is a costly and slow process of incremental improvement and learning from one generation of technology to the next.
On the consumption side technology is also still being developed. One of the potential big users of green hydrogen will be hydrogen fuel cell heavy duty trucks because it is debatable that battery technology is feasible for this application. However, fuel cell trucks are not even at the proper prototype stage. There is a tremendous flurry of activity and hype concerning the development of hydrogen fuel cell trucks and heavy hitters like the Japanese government and Toyota are involved. The industry is awash with start-ups and some fraudsters and bullshit artists. https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/29/business/nikola-founder-trevor-milton-indicted/index.html. Today’s turbodiesel heavy duty trucks represent a century of incremental technology development and improvement. It will also take decades for fuel cell trucks to be cost effective, efficient, reliable, and produced at scale.
Technology development companies and engineering contractors are having a field day and many pre-feasibility studies are in progress. https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/global-green-hydrogen-pipeline-exceeds-250gw-heres-the-27-largest-gigawatt-scale-projects/2-1-933755. Time will tell how many of these pioneering projects with budgets in the tens of billions of dollars will proceed to execution, but I will make one bold prediction about those that do. The iron law of megaprojects will apply to them. I have dealt with the iron law of megaprojects in an earlier blog post. https://ruminantpinkfriday.wordpress.com/2021/02/24/the-iron-law-of-megaproject-management/. To recap the iron law of megaprojects states:
“Over budget, over time, under benefits, over and over again.”
When pioneering technology is involved this result is virtually guaranteed. The pioneers in large scale green hydrogen production are likely to destroy shareholder value. Engineers and technologists are not motivated by creating shareholder value but rather by the technological sublime: “The rapture engineers and technologists get from building large and innovative projects with their rich opportunities for pushing the boundaries for what technology can do, like building the tallest building, the longest bridge, the fastest aircraft, the largest wind turbine, or the first of anything”. Be careful where you invest your hard-earned money. It is not necessarily the pioneers who will make money.
It is my own view that the magnitude of the task to convert to net zero is underestimated by academics and it will take a lot longer and cost significantly more than current projections. Some of the existing petrochemical giants will also most likely not survive this transition.
To be clear, I understand that this transition needs to happen but it is not going to be easy or fast.
Thank you for your comments and suggestions please keep them coming.
Regards
Bruce
Ruminant Pink Friday 
Realistic assessment in my non-scientific opinion
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